River Avenue Blues

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Brett Gardner Has Been A Great Yankee. Don’t Overlook Him.

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Brett Gardner hit the 100th home run of his career on Wednesday night, in dramatic fashion: a 7th inning, go-ahead grand slam against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees had struggled all night to get anything going against former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi but pounced on the Sox’ shaky bullpen, and it was fitting that the Yankees’ longest-tenured player was the one to deliver the decisive blow. His career is on the downswing, and if 2019 is not his final year, 2020 almost surely will be. Before then, Yankee fans should take the time to appreciate a player who has had a fine career as a New York Yankee, consistently providing consistent and overlooked value to what was often one of the league’s best teams during his tenure here.

A 100 home-run career feels slightly underwhelming in the post-steroid era: after all, a generation of fans watched sluggers like Barry Bonds almost hit that many in a single season. But that view is short-sighted. Consider that 19,472 players have played baseball at the MLB level and that, as friend of RAB James Smyth noted on Twitter, only 895 have hit 100 home runs. That means that Brett Gardner is the newest member of a club to which only 5% of all MLB players in history belong.

That is quite the accomplishment for a player who, at age 17, was not even sure he would make the roster at the College of Charleston in South Carolina. In fact, he originally didn’t: he was cut after trying out for the team as an unrecruited walk-on. But he showed up for practice anyway and was never asked to leave again, eventually drafted in the third round of the 2005 draft by the Yankees after hitting .447 as a college senior. He has never left the Yankees organization, either.

He made his Yankee debut in 2008, and is the only player left on the current Yankees to have donned the pinstripes at the original House that Ruth Built. Since then, he has hit .260/.344/.391 (102 wRC+) in 1377 games for the Bombers, compiling 37.5 bWAR. He is renowned for his patience at the plate, always taking pitches and ranking toward the top of the league in pitches per plate appearance. He was an All-Star in 2015 and a World Series winner in 2009.

On top of league average offense—which was often more than that in his prime, as he posted a 127 wRC+ season in 2012 and several others above 110—he was a fantastic defender in the outfield. Four times in his career, Brett saved more than 10 runs in the outfielder and twice exceeded 20, with 25 and 23 DRS in 2010 and 2011, respectively. He saved 17 runs in 2017, and, even last year, he saved 8 runs. He has been an above-average defender (often well-above-average) for a decade. He won a Gold Glove in 2016.

That defensive prowess, in which he manned the spacious left field at Yankee Stadium, was made possible by Gardner’s trademark speed—speed that hasn’t left him. As Mike noted in Gardner’s 2019 season preview, Gardner remains as speedy as ever. To the numbers, using sprint speed from Statcast:

  • 2016: 28.7 feet per second (69th in MLB)
  • 2017: 28.8 feet per second (71st in MLB)
  • 2018: 29.2 feet per second (37th in MLB)
  • 2019: 28.8 feet per second (27th in MLB)

That has made him a prolific baserunner, logging above-average baserunning figures according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference last year. In other words, even as his offensive skills have depreciated, he has remained an efficient, above-average baserunner with above-average defense and one of the league’s speediest players.

Those skills, odd as it may seem, are why Gardner was able to join the exclusive 100 home run club last week: he was always offering value to the Yankees. Consider that he has been worth less than 3 bWAR exactly once (discounting 2012 when he logged only 16 games) after he became a full-time player in 2010, That was last year, and it was 2.8, meaning that Gardner has been a consistent 3-win player for a decade. Even though that’s not superstar material, it is a very valuable MLB player—and a rare one, at that.

Gardner has played with inner-circle Hall of Famers and with big-name superstars with divisive personalities that command talk radio attention and tabloid headlines. Through it all, he has provided steady clubhouse leadership and been an unofficial captain of sorts of the new Yankees, alongside CC Sabathia and Aaron Judge.

Brett Gardner’s career has been easy to overlook, but that doesn’t mean you should overlook it. After all, either after this year or next, he will no longer be a Yankee—and when that time comes, I suspect you’ll find yourself missing the speedy, efficient outfielder who has so woven himself into the fabric of the New York Yankees that you barely even notice he is there, doing what he has always done.

Yankeemetrics: Nightmare on River Ave. (April 1-3)

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(AP)

April 1: Three is justenough
Monday started out with the worst possible Not-April-Fools-Joke — Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton landing on the Injured List — but ended on a much better note with the Yankees gutting through a 3-1 win over the Tigers.

Milestone alert! This was the team’s 500th regular season win at the current Yankee Stadium. Those 500 wins are 13 more than any other team has at their home ballpark since 2009.

Gary Sanchez gave the Yankees an early lead with a solo homer in a the second inning, a monster blast that went 417 feet to straightaway center. It was his second longball in as many games, the first time he’s gone deep in back to back games since August 17-18, 2017. That’s right — he didn’t homer in consecutive games at all last year.

Brett Gardner added an insurance run in the fifth with a solo shot to right-center. The Yankees are now 26-4 since 2017 (including playoffs) when Gardy goes yardy. Gardner still has never hit a true opposite-field home run in his career; the closest he came was a blast over the wall slightly to the left of dead-center at Tropicana Field on May 11, 2015.

Domingo German was the star, pitching the definition of an “effectively wild” game with seven strikeouts, five walks, one hit and one run (unearned) allowed in five innings. Coupled with his brilliant six-inning, no-hit start last May, German delivered this #FunFact: He became the first pitcher in Yankees history with multiple starts of at least five innings and one or fewer hits allowed within his first 30 career MLB games.

(Newsday)

Terrific Tanaka, Terrible Offense
The Yankees trotted out a lineup that included three players who were supposed to be in Scranton this week, and the result was hardly a shocker — a 3-1 loss that included a pathetic offense and little support for another brilliant outing by Masahiro Tanaka.

Still, the Yankees had a chance to win, entering the ninth with the game knotted at one, because of the excellence of Tanaka. He scattered eight hits, struck out seven with no walks, and wiggled out of a few tough jams in coughing up just one run over 6 2/3 innings. Combined with his awesome Opening Day start, Tanaka earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series award:

He is the second Yankees pitcher ever to begin the season throwing back-to-back starts allowing no more than one earned run with five-plus strikeouts and no walks in each game (the other guy was Kevin Brown in 2004).

Tanaka filled up the strike zone, throwing 63 of his 87 pitches (72%) for strikes, and his command was stellar in netting 15 called strikes, freezing several Tigers on pitches in the middle of the plate:

Tanaka’s effort was wasted by the Yankees cold bats and a ninth inning implosion by Aroldis Chapman. While the fireballer’s velocity was up from his first two appearances of the season, it didn’t matter as his command was off and he got torched for two runs and three hits by the Tigers. We’ve seen Chapman struggle at times in pinstripes — but not to this extent.

The last time he allowed at least two runs and three hits and took the loss in a game was Sept. 7, 2012 in his first season as a closer with the Reds.

(New York Post)

Breezy day in the Bronx
The Yankees six-game season-opening homestand ended in the most miserable fashion, as they dropped the rubber game of the series to the Tigers, 2-1, and were the victims of a couple awful franchise records in doing so.

They struck out 18 times, the most ever in a nine-inning game by any Yankees team. They now have 65 strikeouts for the season, the highest total through six games in franchise history. Thirteen of those punchouts were by Tigers starter Matthew Boyd, who also limited them to just one run in 6 1/3 innings. Boyd is the first left-hander to strike out at least 13 Yankees and allow no more than one run in a regular-season game at Yankee Stadium (old or new). The only southpaw pitcher to do that in a playoff game in the Bronx was Cliff Lee in Game 3 of the 2010 ALCS.

The one of the few reasons for optimism in the Yankees disastrous 2-4 record has been their starting pitching, which has a 2.32 ERA and has given up one earned run or fewer five times. Only two other Yankee pitching staffs have begun the season with their starters allowing no more than one earned run in five of the first six games — it also happened last year and in 2002.

Overall, they’ve allowed 20 runs, the 33rd time in franchise history they’ve given up 20 or fewer runs in the first six games; twice before they also were below .500 thru six games: 1964 and 1977. The 1964 team went on win the AL pennant and lose in the World Series while the 1977 team was World Series champs.

Some more perspective (don’t jump off the cliff yet?) … This is the sixth time in the Wild Card era that the Yankees have started 2-4 or worse. The results of the previous five seasons it happened:

Missed Playoffs – 1 (2013)
Made Playoffs – 4 (2017, 2015, 2006, 1998)
Won Division – 2 (2006, 1998)
Won World Series – 1 (1998)

Spring training results that we shouldn’t read into

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Cessa. (Presswire)

Earlier this week, I touched on a few players’ spring training performances that have me optimistic. Maybe taking meaning from their camp statistics will make me look dumb over the next few months. Probably, in fact. Today, let’s actually follow conventional wisdom: Grapefruit League numbers are meaningless. Our expectations of the following players shouldn’t be altered because of what they’ve done down in Florida.

Bursting Luis Cessa’s bubble

When Luis Severino and CC Sabathia went down, it seemed inevitable that Luis Cessa would nab a spot in the rotation. He was nothing short of fantastic this spring. Yet, after he posted a microscopic 0.98 ERA in a hair more than 18 innings, the righty was relegated to the bullpen. He probably will get a handful of starts this season anyway, but the fact that his performance didn’t earn him a chance every fifth day speaks volumes.

It’s nice that he pitched well, but that doesn’t erase his lifetime 4.71 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He’s seen his fair share of major league time over the last few seasons, and now that he’ll be 27 next month, it doesn’t look like he has any upside. Been there, done that. It’s time for Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga prove their worth. Or, go to Gio Gonzalez as an experienced veteran.

J.A. Happ will be fine

The Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to solidify the rotation, and just over 11 poor Grapefruit League frames shouldn’t cause much concern. The southpaw was prone to the long ball in camp and surrendered six dingers, which ballooned his ERA to 7.94. His regular season ERA will probably be half that. ZiPS, PECOTA, and Steamer all have him right around 4.00.

There are legitimate reasons to worry about Happ, though. Pitchers in their mid-to-late thirties decline, and the 36 year-old Happ is no exception. He’s going to get worse while under contract with the Yankees barring a Sabathia-like resurgence. That being said, cherry picking his spring performance does not make him toast.

Tyler Wade still has something to prove

After he posted an .845 OPS this spring, Wade’s frustration about not making the team is understandable. He had a spot on the 25-man roster until the Yankees made a trade in the 11th hour for Mike Tauchman. Clearly, the Yankees are looking for a bench that isn’t full of light hitters. Pairing Wade with Austin Romine makes for a pretty weak bench, and even though Tauchman hasn’t hit much in the big leagues yet, he’s the type of player the Yankees covet.

Wade has a disappointing major league track record. He’s posted a 23 wRC+ in 133 big league plate appearances, which doesn’t cut it no matter how much versatility he offers. No amount of production in spring training can erase that. With DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having the ability to cover multiple infield positions and Tauchman able to span all three outfield spots, Wade became the odd man out despite his best effort.

Think twice about falling for Brett Gardner again

A .394/.450/.697 triple-lash will open anyone’s eyes in spring training. That was what Gardner did, but we’ve seen this before. He’s a notorious hot starter who wears down in the second half. He has a career 112/89 wRC+ split between the two halves of the season.

I’d undoubtedly sign up for a torrid start again this year, especially with the array of injuries the team is dealing with. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t do it again. At some point, his second half swoons are going to carry over into the start following season, and 2019 could be that year. He authored a putrid 66 wRC+ to close last season and lost his job to Andrew McCutchen, to boot. Clint Frazer is gunning for his role this year. It would be fun to see Gardner have one last gasp, but I’m not changing my opinion based on what he did over the last month. I was basically ready to move on in the offseason. Now, the Yankees have no choice but to start him.

Various others

The players mentioned above are the ones I found most compelling to discuss. There are other standouts and poor performers whose results mean next to nothing, but it’s not worth a couple of paragraphs. No, I’m not worried about Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, or Adam Ottavino. I don’t think Nestor Cortes, David Hale, or Gio Urshela are hidden gems. I think that’s a little too obvious.

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

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German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

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(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

Where does each 2019 Yankee hit the ball the hardest?

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(Presswire)

In the year 2019, exit velocity is firmly ingrained in the baseball lexicon. It is inescapable. It’s all over Twitter and game broadcasts, and the Yankees literally show exit velocity on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard. Each time a Yankee puts the ball in play, there’s the exit velocity, right next to the pitch velocity on the center field scoreboard. Get used to it. Exit velocity isn’t going anywhere.

The Yankees have embraced exit velocity as an evaluation tool. It helped them unearth Luke Voit, and I remember former farm system head Gary Denbo mentioning Aaron Judge had premium exit velocity back when he was still a prospect in the minors. Hit the ball hard and good things happen. Here is the 2018 exit velocity leaderboard (min. 200 balls in play):

  1. Aaron Judge: 94.7 mph
  2. Joey Gallo: 93.9 mph
  3. Nelson Cruz: 93.9 mph
  4. Giancarlo Stanton: 93.7 mph
  5. Matt Chapman: 93.1 mph
    (MLB average: 87.7 mph)

Hitting the ball hard is a good skill to have. I mean, duh. Hit the ball hard and it’s more likely to go for a hit. Hit the ball hard in the air and it’s more likely to do serious damage, meaning extra-base hits. Last season the league hit .730 with a 1.098 ISO — that’s ISO, not SLG — on fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. For real.

Not surprisingly, the home run record-setting Yankees led MLB with a 93.6 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives last season. With that in mind, let’s look at where each projected member of the 2019 Yankees hit the ball the hardest last year. Specifically, let’s look at where in the strike zone they produce their best contact. Some guys are low ball hitters, others are high ball hitters, etc.

For the purposes of this post, we’re going to consider “best contact” to be fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. Why 100 mph and not, say, 95 mph or 97.6 mph or whatever? No real reason. Round numbers are cool so 100 mph it is. Here is each projected 2019 Yankee, listed alphabetically, and last year’s “best contact” profile.

(All spray chart are shown with Yankee Stadium’s dimensions even though not every batted ball was hit at Yankee Stadium, which is why there appear to be more homers than were actually hit.)

Miguel Andujar

Average FB+LD exit velocity: 92.7 mph
Number of 100+ mph FB+LD: 65 (13.5% of all balls in play)

I am legitimately surprised Andujar’s exit velocity numbers are not better. His average exit velocity on all batted balls was 89.2 mph, which ranked 72nd among the 186 hitters with at least 300 balls in play last year. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranked 128th (!), right behind Manny Margot and one-tenth of a mile-an-hour better than JaCoby Jones. Huh. Didn’t expect that.

Anyway, the strike zone plot above shows Andujar makes hard contact pretty much everywhere. That makes sense. He seems to get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it’s pitched. Most of his 100 mph or better fly balls and line drives are to the pull field, like most hitters, though Andujar can drive the ball the other way. I’m still a bit surprised his exit velocity are numbers are relatively low (but still better than average). Didn’t see that coming. Maybe that means he’s due for bad regression?

[Read more…]

Poll: Undoing one Yankees’ offseason move

by

(Presswire)

Now that the big fish of free agency have picked their destinations, we can officially close the door on the Yankees’ offseason. (I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Dallas Keuchel signing even after the Luis Severino injury.) Even without Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, the Yankees had a pretty busy winter. They signed seven free agents, though only three are new to the club. Two significant trades were completed as well.

If you had a mulligan, which transaction would you undo? For argument’s sake, I’ll make a brief case against each move. I’ll then make my choice and let you vote on yours at the end.

Re-signed Brett Gardner (1 year, $7.5 million)

The first step of the offseason was to buy out Gardner’s $12 million 2019 option for a cool $2 million. Then, the Yanks re-signed him for $7.5 million immediately thereafter. It wasn’t a total shock that the team declined its club option on the outfielder, but it was somewhat surprising to see them bring him back immediately. Gardner had a 66 wRC+ in the second half last season, and at 35 years of age, looked just about done. If the front office knew that Bryce Harper was never going to be an option, they should have looked for alternatives before handing Gardner the left field job this season. If Gardner is indeed toast, hopefully Clint Frazier rights the team’s wrong.

Re-signed CC Sabathia (1 year, $8 million)

Unlike Gardner, Sabathia is in the midst of a late career resurgence. The main concern is his heart health after he underwent an angioplasty over the winter, but in terms of performance, there haven’t been any signs of decline. He’s recorded a 117 ERA+ since 2016, but maybe it would have been wise to part ways before Sabathia’s decline. Even though he’s reinvented his pitching style, who knows what could happen at 38 years old.

Re-signed Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million)

The Yankees ostensibly believe that they’re going to get the old Britton. Yet, bouts of forearm soreness in 2017 and a ruptured Achilles prior to the 2018 season sapped much of the southpaw’s effectiveness in recent seasons. For what it’s worth, his stuff looked pretty good in pinstripes at the end of the year. Still, he was pretty wild and struggled to miss bats. Why should we be confident that he’s going to be an elite reliever again?

Re-signed J.A. Happ (2 years, $34 million)

The concern about Happ is not unlike the worries about Sabathia. Happ is another older pitcher, at 36 years old, so the end could come at a moment’s notice. And like Sabathia, Happ has been really good in recent years. It’s just a matter of: is it better to move on too soon or too late? Especially when a younger and better alternative, Patrick Corbin, was available in free agency.

Signed Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million)

Ottavino was awesome last season. He’s got a wipeout slider and a strong fastball. How can anyone argue against that? Well, he’s also just a season removed from walking 39 batters in 53 innings. Control has hindered Ottavino in past years and he’s had a bit of a volatile career because of it.

Signed DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million)

As it always goes with ex-Rockies, will he be able to hit away from Coors Field? That’s not the only reason for consternation, though. He’s settled in as a starting second baseman but will now be expected to bounce around the infield without a regular starting role. Is he expected to play almost everyday? Yes. But perhaps having to spend time on the infield corners becomes a problem too. Perhaps Marwin Gonzalez would have been the better option as a super-utility player.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki (league minimum)

When much of the fanbase wanted Machado, signing an oft-injured ex-star is a bit underwhelming. Not only have injuries marred much of Tulo’s career, but he’s also 34 years-old and hasn’t played well since 2014. To count on him as the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery is a huge risk. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy like Tulowitzki, but entrusting him with a significant role could get ugly.

Traded for James Paxton

On a per inning basis, Paxton is elite. The problem throughout his career has been that he’s struggled to rack up innings, however. The Yankees are really counting on him to create a one-two punch with (healthy) Luis Severino, but will Paxton hold up? Getting an ace isn’t a piece of cake, and sometimes risks have to be undertaken in order to get one, which is precisely what the Yankees are rolling the dice on here. Again, with Corbin available for money, the Yankees could have held prospects like Justus Sheffield for an alternative to Paxton.

Traded away Sonny Gray

There’s no question that Gray’s tenure in pinstripes did not work out. If Gray thrives with the Reds, it’ll be easy to say the Yankees screwed up. But, was it sensible to deal Gray at his lowest value? Gray could have been given some sort of opportunity to rebuild himself in New York this year. Maybe he could have served as the swingman, which appeared to be Luis Cessa’s job to lose before Severino’s injury.

My vote goes for Gardner. I’d have been happy to have him back as a fourth outfielder, but to me, there was no need to rush into an agreement at the outset of free agency. His performance wasn’t going to find him a big contract elsewhere for the Yankees to match, and in fact, they probably could have saved a few bucks if they were patient. Not that the Yankees need to save a few bucks, but rather, my point is that they could have sought a better starting left fielder before returning to Gardy.

What offseason move would you undo?
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