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2018 Trade Deadline Rumors: Tuesday

July 31, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

A lefty bat worth squeezing between Judge and Stanton. (Rob Carr/Getty)

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is 4pm ET today and wow have the Yankees been busy. The busiest team in baseball over the last week or so, right? Feels like it. The Yankees have completed six trades in the last six days, some more impactful than others. A recap:

Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers, and Cody Carroll for Zach Britton. (RAB post)
Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney for J.A. Happ. (RAB post)
Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos for Luke Voit and $1M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Caleb Frare for $1.5M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Adam Warren for $1.25M in international bonus money. (RAB post)
Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo for Lance Lynn. (RAB post)

Eleven players out, four players and $3.75M worth of international bonus money in. Know what the crazy thing is? I am not at all convinced the Yankees are done. They could still use another outfielder (because Aaron Judge is hurt) as well as a catcher (because Gary Sanchez is hurt). Plus more pitching. I’d rather have too much than not enough.

We’re once again going to keep track of the day’s Yankees-related rumors right here, so make sure you check back for updates. The Yankees have made so many moves already that I can’t promise many rumors today, they might in fact be done, but I am open to being surprised. Chat about all the day’s trade deadline rumors and activity here.

2:28pm ET: The Yankees will not be getting Cameron Maybin. He’s been traded to the Mariners. The Yankees reportedly remain in the hunt for a right-handed outfield bat, however.
11:10am ET: The Yankees want a right-handed outfield bat to help cover for Judge, though they were not in on Tommy Pham, who was traded to the Rays. They want someone comfortable with a bench role. [Joel Sherman]
10:49am ET: The Yankees have “zero interest” in Matt Harvey, and that was even before the Happ and Lynn trades. Not surprised. I couldn’t see the Yankees bringing him back to New York, especially since there’s little reason to believe he can pitch well in Yankee Stadium. [Andy Martino]
10:36am ET: You can stop fantasizing about Harper now. “Bryce is not going anywhere. I believe in this team,” said Nationals GM Mike Rizzo this morning. [Chelsea Janes]
10:21am ET: The Yankees have discussed Brad Ziegler with the Marlins. Unless there would be another deal coming a la Warren/Lynn, I’m not sure where he fits. Maybe they’re trying to drive up the price for the Red Sox, who have been connected to Ziegler. [Feinsand]
10:20am ET: The Yankees are expected to add an outfielder today. Expecting to add an outfielder and actually adding an outfielder are two different things though. [Ken Rosenthal, Feinsand]
10:09am ET: The Yankees have spoken to the Mets about Jose Bautista. The Mets don’t want to give him away though, plus the chances of a Yankees-Mets trade are always small. [Heyman]
9:30am ET: In case you missed it last night, the Nationals have made Bryce Harper available. The Yankees haven’t checked in as far as we know, but still, this is pretty noteworthy. [Mark Feinsand]
9:30am ET: The Yankees are among the teams with interest in impending free agent Andrew McCutchen. The Giants insist they’re not ready to sell even though they’ve fallen out of the race. McCutchen is definitely someone who could be on the move in August. [Jon Morosi]
9:30am ET: The Yankees have also checked in on Curtis Granderson and Cameron Maybin, so they’re casting a wide net for an outfielder in the wake of Judge’s injury. I’d be all for a Granderson reunion. The R2C2 podcast episode alone would make it worth it. [Morosi, Jon Heyman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Yankees acquire J.A. Happ for Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney

July 26, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees have been trying to add a starter since the offseason and they finally landed one. This afternoon the Yankees announced they have acquired veteran southpaw J.A Happ from the Blue Jays for infielder Brandon Drury and outfield prospect Billy McKinney. The trade has been announced and is official. Done deal.

For all intents and purposes, Happ will step into the rotation to replace Jordan Montgomery, who was lost to Tommy John surgery earlier this season. Domingo German and Luis Cessa had been starting in Montgomery’s place the last few weeks, and while there were some promising moments, it largely did not go well. The Yankees needed another starter and they got a pretty good facsimile of Montgomery in Happ.

Here is our Scouting The Market post on Happ. He currently owns a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) with strikeout (27.4%) and ground ball (44.6%) rates that will play in Yankee Stadium. Happ has struggled recently — he’s allowed 26 runs in his last five starts and 31.1 innings — so the Yankees are clearly banking on his track record. He had a 3.33 ERA (3.87 FIP) with Toronto from 2016-17 and a 3.56 ERA (3.56 FIP) in 2018 as recently as June 24th.

In Drury and McKinney, the Yankees traded two players with no obvious long-term fit. Drury came over from the Diamondbacks in February, the Yankees talked him up all Spring Training, he was the Opening Day third baseman, then he landed on the disabled list with migraines and blurry vision, and Miguel Andujar took over third base. Andujar’s emergence has made Drury expendable.

During his limited big league time this season Drury hit .176/.263/.275 (50 wRC+) with one home run in 18 games while playing first, second, and third bases. He also hit .294/.403/.447 (144 wRC+) with five home runs in 55 games with Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees had Drury on their big league roster as a utility guy at various points the last few weeks, but he didn’t play much.

Going forward, the Yankees had no place to play Drury barring an injury, and that means no way to rebuild his trade value. The disabled list stint and lack of MLB playing time hurt his value, no doubt. Clearly the Yankees like him. They wouldn’t have made the trade for him otherwise. But his three primary positions are third base (Andujar), second base (Gleyber Torres), and first base (Greg Bird), and the Yankees have young players there.

As for McKinney, he was no higher than seventh on the outfield depth chart when everyone is healthy and no higher than fifth on the current outfield depth chart with Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip, foot, back) and Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) on the disabled list. McKinney went from the A’s to the Cubs in the Jeff Samardzija trade, the Cubs to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman trade, and now to the Blue Jays in the Happ trade.

McKinney, who made his big league debut with the Yankees in Toronto earlier this season, hit .230/.294/.502 (120 wRC+) with 13 home runs in 54 Triple-A after returning from a shoulder injury suffered when the crashed into the Rogers Centre wall in April. He’s one of those ‘tweener guys the Yankees didn’t have room for, much like Ben Gamel and Jake Cave, who were traded away recently. I had McKinney 22nd on my most recent top 30 prospects list.

I’d mentioned in recent days the trade that sent Scott Kazmir from the Athletics to the Astros three years ago seemed like a decent benchmark for Happ, and it fits. Houston sent two mid-range prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) to the A’s for Kazmir. The Yankees sent two mid-range prospects (Taylor Widener and Nick Solak) to the D’Backs for Drury, then flipped Drury for Happ. Consider McKinney inflation.

Happ is an impending free agent on a three-year contract worth $36M. His full luxury tax hit is $12M but his actual 2018 salary is $13M. He will count roughly $4M against the luxury tax payroll, less Drury’s and McKinney’s luxury tax hits. The net hit is something like $3.7M. The Yankees have plenty of luxury tax payroll wiggle room anyway. There’s still some payroll space remaining for another trade even if the Yankees don’t shed salary.

With Happ and Zach Britton, the Yankees have upgraded both their rotation and bullpen — the bullpen didn’t really need upgrading, but hey, Zach Britton! — with five days to go before the non-waiver trade deadline. They might be done, though I suspect they’ll look for a catcher given Gary Sanchez’s injury and monitor the pitching market in case a high-end starter like Jacob deGrom becomes available.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Archer, Happ, Pitching Prospects

July 25, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is now six days away and the Yankees made their (first?) big move last night. They acquired Zach Britton for three pitching prospects. The trade became official late last night. No need to worry about those stingy O’s medical reviews. It’s done. Britton is a Yankee. Anyway, here are the latest deadline rumors.

Yankees have checked in on Archer

The Yankees had two scouts on hand for Chris Archer’s most recent start and they have asked about his availability, report Pete Caldera and Jerry Crasnick. Archer faced the Marlins on Sunday and it was the perfect encapsulation of Chris Archer. He struck out 13 and walked zero in six innings … and also allowed four runs on eight hits. Archer has a 4.30 ERA (3.50 FIP) with 25.6% strikeouts and 7.5% walks in 90 innings around an abdominal injury this year. Since Opening Day 2016, he has a 4.09 ERA (99 ERA+) in 492.1 innings.

Truth be told, the Rays missed their opportunity to trade Archer for maximum value a few years ago. He turns 30 in September (no, really), his performance has slipped in recent years, and he comes with three years of control beyond 2018 rather than four or five. That said, Archer can still tantalize with his stuff, and three years of control at $27.7M from 2019-21 is a great price even if he is a true talent league average starter now. The Yankees are doing their due diligence. I still get the sense Tampa will want an ace-caliber package in return for Archer though.

Blue Jays dropping price for Happ

According to Joel Sherman and Andy Martino, the Blue Jays are really pushing to trade their rentals soon — they don’t want to be stuck trying to move everyone on deadline day — and their asking price for J.A. Happ has dropped. They had been seeking a club’s top three-ish prospect in return. The Scott Kazmir trade makes sense to me as a benchmark. Kazmir went from the Athletics to the Astros for two mid-range prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) as a rental three years ago.

The Yankees have of course been connected to Happ in recent weeks, so this information is relevant to them. Maybe this’ll start to move things toward the finish line. Happ has a 4.18 ERA (3.84 FIP) in 20 starts and 114 innings this season, though his last six starts have been rough (27 runs in 31.1 innings). Even last time out, he needed 102 pitches to throw five innings of one-run ball against the Manny Machado-less Orioles. Thing is, all the other rentals (Cole Hamels, Tyson Ross, etc.) have stunk recently too. I liked Happ the most among the rentals to start with. Since they’re all struggling, might as well stick with the guy liked most in the first place? I guess?

Teams interested in pitching prospects more than Frazier

According to our Sung-Min Kim, the Yankees have been pushing Clint Frazier in trade talks in recent weeks, but teams are showing more interest in their pitching prospects. The Yankees are loaded with outfielders and pushing Frazier in trade conversations only makes sense. His recent disabled list stint and trip through the concussion protocol really complicates things before the trade deadline, however.

As for trading pitching prospects, man, trade ’em all. Well, no, not all of them, but I think you know what I mean. The Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects — 22 of MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects are pitchers — and the attrition rate is so damn high. Trade some of them before they blow out their arms and whatnot. Justus Sheffield is on another level for me. He’s a stud and he’s so very close to MLB ready. He should only go in a trade for a true difference maker. Chance Adams? Albert Abreu? Pretty much every other pitching prospect in the system? No trouble trading any of them.

Yankees won’t part with top prospects for rentals

In some very unsurprising news, Jack Curry reports the Yankees won’t trade any of their top prospects for a rental before the deadline. Maybe in a better trade market they would, but, with no high-end pitching rentals available, the top prospects are staying. Curry lists Sheffield, Frazier, and Estevan Florial among the “untouchable for a rental” group, which makes sense.

The Yankees did trade three prospects for Britton but only one (Tate) ranked among my most recent top 30 Yankees prospects. He was No. 7. (To be fair, Cody Carroll was No. 31.) The farm system isn’t what it was 18 months ago due to trades and graduations, but the Yankees still have plenty of good trade chips down there, even with Tate gone and the top guys off-limits. There’s an awful lot of pitching down there to peddle.

Yankees pushing Drury, Rule 5 Draft arms in trades

As expected, the Yankees have been pushing Brandon Drury and their various Rule 5 Draft eligible pitching prospects (Adams, Erik Swanson, etc.) in trades, according to Sherman and Martino. Drury and either Adams or Abreu, who is already on the 40-man roster, reportedly made up the bulk of their offer for Manny Machado. The Orioles wanted Florial and that was that. I should note the Yankees agreed to trade three Rule 5 Draft eligible arms (Carroll, Tate, Josh Rogers) for Britton.

As for Drury, Jeff Passan says the Yankees have been pushing him in trades for controllable relievers (in addition to the Machado), and Jon Heyman adds Drury was in the team’s offer for Brad Hand. I assume the Britton trade ends the bullpen search, but who knows? They could add a long-term bullpen piece to help win this year and help replace impending free agents Britton and David Robertson after the season. Could happen! But yeah, I wouldn’t count on it. Point is, the Yankees are pushing Drury and Rule 5 Draft eligible pitchers. Here’s a list of their upcoming Rule 5 Draft eligibles.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Eovaldi, Hand, Moustakas, D’Backs

July 10, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Nasty Nate in your area. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

We are now three weeks away from the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline and the Manny Machado rumors have arrived. It feels like a foregone conclusion the Yankees will do something before the deadline. I’m not sure what, exactly, but I’d bet on adding a starting pitcher. Anyway, here’s the latest batch of trade deadline rumors.

Yankees scouting Eovaldi

The Yankees were among the teams with a scout on hand for Nathan Eovaldi’s most recent start, reports Marc Topkin. Eovaldi took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Mets on Sunday and finished the afternoon with one hit allowed in seven shutout innings. He struck out nine. On one hand, that’s undeniably excellent. On the other hand, it was the Mets, so yeah.

Eovaldi, now 28, has a 3.35 ERA (4.16 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.3%), walk (3.3%), and ground ball (48.8%) rates in eight starts and 48.1 innings back from his second Tommy John surgery. He’s on a cheap ($2M) one-year contract and it is all but certain the Rays will trade him before the deadline. Tampa has Eovaldi using his cutter more, which could explain his effectiveness. The Yankees know Eovaldi well, if nothing else. He’s worth a longer look outside a rumor roundup setting. Stay tuned.

Yankees interested in Hand

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in lefty reliever Brad Hand. Hand is signed affordably through 2020 with a $10M club option for 2021. The Yankees have a very strong and deep bullpen already, but there’s always room for another quality reliever. Swap out Chasen Shreve for Hand and the bullpen would be even better.

Hand is probably the top reliever on the trade market right now and the price tag figures to be very high given his performance and contract. He’s not too dissimilar from Andrew Miller circa 2016. The Yankees had interest in him at last year’s deadline and adding another reliever does make some sense. Adding Hand won’t solve the rotation issues but he would make the Yankees better, and that’s the name of the game, getting better. Especially in a division race this tight.

Yankees, Blue Jays still discussing Happ

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees and Blue Jays are “continuing conversations” about left-hander J.A. Happ. The two sides are said to be “haggling over the price tag.” I guess the Yankees have not been scared away by Happ’s recent performance. It’s not just his dud against the Yankees over the weekend. In his last four starts Happ has allowed 20 runs and 38 baserunners (and six homers) in 22.2 innings. He has a 4.44 ERA (3.97 FIP) for the season.

The Yankees are not prone to small sample size (over)reactions. They’re a big picture organization. That doesn’t mean they’ll ignore Happ’s recent struggles, but if they’re comfortable with the medicals and their scouts and analytical folks think this is just a bump in the road, they could pursue Happ anyway. The trade deadline pitching options don’t look all that appealing right now. Happ, even with his recent struggles, may be the best bet the rest of the season. I’m not surprised the Yankees are still involved.

Yankees considering Moustakas for first base

Just put anyone at first base how hard could it be. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The Yankees are considering longtime Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas for first base, reports Jon Morosi. This sounds more like an idea the Yankees are kicking around rather than a “the two teams are talking” rumor. Moustakas has played a handful of games at first base this year — he’d never played a position other than third prior to this season — and he’s on a cheap ($6.5M) contract.

Greg Bird is maybe kinda sorta starting to hit a bit — he is 7-for-29 (.241) with five walks (.371 OBP) in his last eight games and his at-bats have been much better — but he’s still hitting an underwhelming .203/.324/.398 (100 wRC+) overall. Moustakas is hitting a slightly better .251/.308/.464 (106 wRC+) overall, including .207/.270/.393 (77 wRC+) since the day Bird made his season debut. Plus he hasn’t played much first base at all. Like I’ve been saying, if Bird isn’t hitting by the All-Star break, go get a first baseman. An actual first baseman, preferably.

D’Backs, Rangers, Phillies scouting Yankees

The Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Phillies all had scouts watching Triple-A Scranton over the weekend, reports George King. The Reds and Royals continue to scout the Yankees as well. Most of the RailRiders’ best players (Brandon Drury, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade) were in the big leagues at the time, but Billy McKinney is still down there, and over the weekend pitching prospects Justus Sheffield, Josh Rogers, and Chance Adams all started for Scranton.

The Rangers stink and are going to trade Cole Hamels before the trade deadline, so it makes sense that they’ve got eyes on the Yankees. What about the D’Backs and Phillies? They’re contenders! They’re not just contenders, they’re in first place! I suppose Arizona could be doing due diligence in case they collapse and decide to trade Patrick Corbin? Unless the Phillies make a young starter like Nick Pivetta or Zach Eflin (or Aaron Nola!) available, I’m not sure they match up well with the Yankees for a trade.

Yankeemetrics: Bombers snap Canadian Curse (July 6-8)

July 9, 2018 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

Gray skies forever
The Yankees kicked of their 11-game, 10-day road trip with the type of loss that has become all too familiar for this team recently — a disaster outing by Sonny Gray, who was pummeled by the Blue Jays on Friday night.

If there was any team and/or place where Gray might finally show the Yankees he deserved a permanent spot in the rotation this summer, it would have been in Toronto against the Blue Jays. Over his previous six road starts, Gray had produced a 2.27 ERA. He also entered Friday’s matchup with a career 1.88 ERA in seven starts at the Rogers Centre, the third-best mark by any pitcher with that many starts at the ballpark; and in four starts there as a Yankee, his ERA was 1.50.

All of that historical, positive momentum was quickly obliterated as Gray was pounded early and often by the Blue Jays lineup. He gave up five runs on six hits, including a home run, before getting yanked after the second inning. He retired only six of the 15 batters he faced, as he also walked two batters and hit a guy — and don’t forget about the two wild pitches he threw. Congrats, Sonny, you get our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series!

The list of Yankee starters that were able to cram all of that awfulness — five earned runs, nine baserunners, two wild pitches — into an out of two innings or fewer is short: Gray, Ivan Nova (Sept. 12, 2015) and Tommy John (May 25, 1980). Somehow, each of those three games were against the Blue Jays.

Yet, this might not have been Gray’s most embarrassing start in the past week. In his previous start against the Red Sox on June 30, he gave up six runs on seven hits while lasting one out into the third inning. And with those back-to-back ugly games, he joined this group of pinstriped anti-legends:

Yankees Back-to-Back Starts of 2 1/3 IP or fewer, 5+ ER and 6+ Hits allowed:

Sonny Gray (2018)
Chien-Ming Wang (2009)
Jeff Johnson (1991)
Ed Whitson (1985)
Jim Bouton (1962)

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) July 7, 2018

Through Friday, the Yankees were 7-10 in games started by Gray and 49-19 in games started by all other Yankee pitchers. He had started 20 percent of all Yankees games, but was the starter in 34.5 percent of their losses.

We’ll end with one highlight, Aaron Hicks hitting his 16th home run of 2018, the most he’s ever hit a single season. It was also his 10th homer in his last 19 games; the only other Yankee switch hitters to hit 10 homers in a span of fewer than 20 games were Mark Teixeira (2009) and Mickey Mantle (many times).

Gardy Party, All Rise
The Yankees wasted no time in erasing the bad taste from Friday’s miserable loss. Brett Gardner cranked the very first pitch that J.A. Happ threw into the Rogers Centre seats, igniting the Yankees offense en route to a bounceback 8-5 win.

Judge followed Gardner’s shot with another home run, the second time this season that the Yankees opened a game with back-to-back homers (also on May 26 versus the Angels). The only other time in franchise they did that twice in one season was 2003.

For Gardner, it was his 14th career lead-off homer, tied with Frankie Crosetti for the sixth-most in franchise history:

**Yankees Most Career Lead-off HR**
Name	HR
Derek Jeter	29
Rickey Henderson	24
Alfonso Soriano	21
Hank Bauer	17
Chuck Knoblauch	15
Brett Gardner	14
Frankie Crosetti	14

Judge’s blast was his 25th home run of the season, the second straight year he’s reached that milestone before the All-Star break. Since the first All-Star Game in 1933, the only other Yankee to hit 25-plus homers prior to the break in consecutive seasons was Roger Maris in 1960-61.

Miguel Andujar, an extra-base hit machine, recorded his 25th double of the season in the top of the ninth. The 23-year-old is the youngest Yankee ever to hit at least 25 doubles and 12 homers before the break (since 1933). The only other Yankees to do it at any age were Robinson Cano (2012), Hideki Matsui (2005), Alfonso Soriano (2002), Mel Hall (1992), Don Mattingly (1986) and Reggie Jackson (1977).

The Blue Jays worked Luis Severino hard from the start, and Severino clearly lacked his best stuff as he gave up three runs on five hits, including two homers, in five innings. Still, he was able to extend his streak of starts with three or fewer runs allowed to 16, the longest such streak by any major-league pitcher in 2018. It’s also the longest streak within a season by any pitcher in franchise history.

Finally, the win snapped their Canadian Curse, as they clinched their first .500 or better season at the Rogers Centre since 2009. The run of eight consecutive losing seasons there (2010-17) was the Yankees longest active drought at any ballpark.

Two is enough
The Yankees capped off their trip north of the border with —shocking! — another series win, edging the Blue Jays 2-1 in 10 innings on Sunday. The Yankees are now 5-4 in extras this season, matching their win total from all of last year.

Coupled with their 13-inning victory in Toronto on June 6, this is the second time ever that the Yankees won multiple extra-inning games at the Rogers Centre in a single season. The other time it happened? Yup, 1998.

The Yankees also showed off their ability to win with smallball: their first run was scored on an RBI groundout, and the game-winning RBI single was set up with a hit by pitch (thanks Tyler Clippard!) and sacrifice bunt. They are now 8-10 when not hitting a homer, the same number of homerless wins they had the entire season last year (8-27). #toomanyhomers

Domingo German, who entered the game with the second-highest whiff rate (15.0%) in the AL among pitchers with at least 60 IP, dominated the Blue Jays with his typical swing-and-miss stuff — 16 swinging strikes among his 100 pitches (16%) — and allowed only one run over six strong innings. Twelve of the 16 whiffs came with his two-seam and four-seam fastball, the most he’s gotten with those pitches in a game this season.

Giancarlo Stanton chipped in with his team-leading 89th and 90th hits of the season, including a third-inning single he drilled into left field with an exit velocity of 120.3 mph. It was the fifth base-hit of at least 120 mph by any player since Statcast tracking began in 2015; Stanton has four of the five, and Judge has the other one.

Brett Gardner was the hero, lacing an opposite-field single in the 10th to score Tyler Wade. It was his first extra-inning go-ahead hit this season and sixth of his career. That’s tied for the fifth-most by a Yankee outfielder since 1925; the only guys ahead of him are Mickey Mantle (14), Bernie Williams (8), Joe DiMaggio (7) and Charlie Keller (7).

Trade Deadline Notes: Harvey, Happ, Ross, Royals, Tigers

July 7, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later today the Yankees and Blue Jays will continue their three-game weekend series with the middle game. That’s a 4:07pm ET start. Here are some trade deadline notes to check out in the meantime.

Harvey “not high” on Yankees’ list

The kinda maybe possibly good again Matt Harvey is “not high” on the Yankees’ list of trade targets, reports Jon Heyman. Heyman says that, among other things, the Yankees are worried about a “potential circus” that would follow Harvey’s return to New York. Yeah, it sure would create a media frenzy. That’s for sure. I’m sure the Yankees would happily live with the headache if Harvey were still a no-doubt ace, but that is no longer the case.

Harvey owns a 4.91 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 80.2 total innings this season, though he’s been better since being traded to the Reds, pitching to a 3.86 ERA (4.20 FIP) in 53.2 innings. He’s been especially good the last three times out, allowing only three runs with a 14/2 K/BB in 18.1 innings against contending teams (Cubs, Braves, Brewers). Jay Jaffe had a good breakdown of Harvey’s revival. Strip away the name and I don’t think the current version of Harvey generates much buzz as a trade candidate. Meh.

Yankees are “main player” for Happ

According to Heyman, the Yankees are a “main player” for J.A. Happ and he’s either at or near the top of their deadline shopping list. The Brewers and Mariners are said to have interest as well, and I’m sure other teams will enter the mix before the trade deadline. The Yankees will get (another) firsthand look at Happ later this afternoon, when he takes the mound at Rogers Centre in the middle game of this three-game series.

The 35-year-old Happ is sitting on a 4.03 ERA (3.64 FIP) after getting clobbered for seven runs in 5.2 innings against the Tigers last time out. Prior to that he had a more palatable 3.62 ERA (3.58 FIP) in 97 innings. I think Happ is the best available rental in a pretty crummy market. A quality southpaw who is familiar with the AL East would be a welcome addition to the rotation. The trade that sent Scott Kazmir from the Athletics to the Astros in 2015 seems like a decent trade benchmark. The A’s landed two top 20 organizational prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) in that deal.

Yankees don’t have much interest in Ross

The Yankees do not have as much interest in Tyson Ross as they do other trade targets like Happ and Michael Fulmer, reports Lindsey Alder (subs. req’d). The 31-year-old Ross is on a dirt cheap one-year contract with the last place Padres and chances are he’ll be traded before the deadline. San Diego would be silly to keep him when they could turn him into a prospect or two. Rebuilding teams sign reclamation projects like Ross specifically so they can flip them for prospects.

So far this season Ross has a 3.78 ERA (4.31 FIP) in exactly 100 innings, though, like Happ, his last start was disaster (seven runs in five innings). Prior to that Ross had a 3.32 ERA (3.87 FIP) in 95 innings. His strikeout (21.4%) and ground ball (43.8%) rates aren’t nearly as good as they were before his 2016-17 arm problems. I see Ross as more of a secondary target a la Jaime Garcia last year. Someone to add for depth. Not someone you’re counting on to really make a difference, you know?

Reds, Tigers, Royals all scouting Yankees

The Reds, Tigers, and Royals have all been scouting the Yankees in recent weeks, according to George King. The Royals had a scout on hand Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday at Yankee Stadium while Reds had someone in the Bronx on Monday and Tuesday. Kansas City has also been scouting Double-A Trenton. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been covering the farm system thoroughly. Undoubtedly other teams are scouting the system as well.

I think it’s safe to assume the Tigers are doing their due diligence in advance of a potential Fulmer trade. The Reds have Harvey and Raisel Iglesias — would they move Luis Castillo? — while the Royals have Danny Duffy and Mike Moustakas, who I supposed could play first base. It might seem like a stretch that the Yankees would trade an MLB roster player(s) for any of those guys, but Jonathan Loaisiga started Monday and Domingo German started Tuesday. I don’t think the Yankees would make either off-limits. I’m not saying they should trade them. But they would in the right deal, for sure.

7/6 to 7/8 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

July 6, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

We are a scant ten days away from the end of the first-half, and the Yankees trail the Red Sox by one game for the best record in baseball. The Yankees will play three against the Blue Jays, four against the Orioles, and four against Cleveland (all on the road) before the All-Star break, and the Red Sox will square-off against the Royals, Rangers, and Blue Jays.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited the Blue Jays for a two-game series back in early June, taking both games. That brought their record to 7-3 against the Blue Jays in 2018, and wouldn’t it be lovely if they kept that pace up? Some notes from the mini-series:

The Yankees pitching staff was excellent, holding the Blue Jays to just ten baserunners and two runs in 22 innings (the second game went to extras), while striking out 24. The bullpen was particularly dominant, pitching to a combined line of 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K.
Sonny Gray had his best start in pinstripes in that second game, going 8 scoreless innings and allowing just four baserunners, while striking out 8.
Aaron Judge sat out the first game on the heels of his dreadful performance in the double-header against the Orioles – lest we forget that he went 0-f0r-9 with 8 strikeouts. That bit of rest must’ve helped, as he hit what proved to be the game-winning two-run homer in the top of the 13th. You might remember that particular moonshot for this young fan’s reaction.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information on the series.

Injury Report

Josh Donaldson, Jaime Garcia, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Tepera, and Troy Tulowitzki are all on the disabled list, and none are slated to return in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

Toronto is 40-46 with a -41 run differential, and are currently sitting in fourth in the AL East. They’ve played fairly well since their last meeting with the Yankees, going 14-11 with a -5 run differential. They’ve been discussed quite a bit as a potential seller as we approach the trade deadline, but injuries to free agents to-be Josh Donaldson and Marco Estrada (he left Tuesday’s game early with an glute strain) may put a damper on just how much they can get back.

Last time around, we wondered if we’d get to see Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anytime soon, and the answer proved to be no. And that doesn’t seem likely to change for at least a few more weeks, as he’s been out since June 6 with a strained patellar tendon. It seems as though the team’s injury woes aren’t just limited to the big club.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager John Gibbons has been somewhat all over the place with his lineups of late, with the only real piece of normalcy being Yangervis Solarte batting third. We’ll probably see something along these lines, though:

Curtis Granderson, DH – .254/.364/.467, 9 HR, 1 SB
Teoscar Hernandez, LF – .261/.313/.518, 13 HR, 3 SB
Yangervis Solarte, 3B – .250/.308/.451, 16 HR, 1 SB
Justin Smoak, 1B – .232/.358/.434, 11 HR, 0 SB
Kevin Pillar, CF – .245/.277/.401, 7 HR, 10 SB
Russell Martin, C – .165/.321/.286, 6 HR, 0 SB
Randal Grichuk, RF – .210/.278/.451, 10 HR, 2 SB
Lourdes Gurriel, SS – .225/.244/.388, 4 HR, 1 SB
Devon Travis, 2B – .230/.282/.358, 5 HR, 1 SB

Kendrys Morales (87 OPS+) may see starts at first and/or DH, and we’ll probably see Aledmys Diaz (83 OPS+) at short, too.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:07 PM EST) – RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Sam Gaviglio

Gaviglio shut the Yankees out for 7 innings back on June 6, striking out 4 and keeping 70% of batted balls on the ground. He has been significantly less effective since then, pitching to a 6.16 ERA in four starts (19.0 IP).

Last outing (vs. DET on 6/30) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 5 K

Saturday (4:07 PM EST) – RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP J.A. Happ

The Yankees knocked Happ out in the fifth inning back on March 29, scoring three runs and forcing the southpaw to throw 96 pitches (nearly 40% of which were balls) in 4.2 IP. Happ is striking out a career-best 26.3% of batters, walking just 6.7%, and maintaining a league-average 44.4% groundball rate; a bit of gopheritis, however (1.23 HR/9) has elevated his ERA to 4.03 (104 ERA+), his worst mark since 2015.

Last outing (vs. DET on 7/1) – 5.2 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 4 K

Sunday (1:07 PM EST) – RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Ryan Borucki

Borucki, a fifteenth-round draft pick back in 2012, made his big-league debut two weeks ago, and has performed admirably through two starts (2.77 ERA/2.33 FIP in 13.0 IP). It has been a long road for the 24-year-old rookie, as he missed all of 2013 and most of 2015 with injuries, but he has performed well up each rung of the ladder in the minors.

Gibbons compared Borucki to Mark Buehrle, which is equal parts lazy, accurate, and unsurprising – he’s a lefty that throws a low-90s four-seamer, a low-80s change-up, and a high-70s slider.

Last outing (vs. DET on 7/2) – 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 8 K

The Bullpen

Closer Roberto Osuna was given a 75-game suspension (retroactive to May 8) for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy, and is not eligible to return until August 5. Other than that news finally being handed down, not much has change in the Blue Jays bullpen since these teams last met – Seung-Hwan Oh and Tyler Clippard are a pseudo-closer-by-committee, with Aaron Loup and John Axford handling the middle innings.

Who (Or What) To Watch

J.A. Happ is auditioning for his next team, and the Yankees are almost certainly interested – so his start is worth watching a bit more closely. That first part applies to Justin Smoak, as well, but I don’t see him as a target for Cashman and Co. given his middling production thus far.